오늘 토론주제는 세계 경제를 덮치고 있는 연쇄 신용경색 문제. 지난 여름 subprime mortgage 사태로 촉발되었던 위기가 한풀 꺾일듯 하면 다시 번지고, 다시 발생하는 악순환이 지난 몇개월간 반복되고 있는 것.
2003년 이래로 생겨난 모든 금융위기가 몇주정도의 어려움 끝에 진정된 반면, 이번 사태는 FRB가 연이어 금리를 인하하고 있음에도 진정되지 않고 있다는데 사태의 심각성이 있다고.
오히려 상황이 지난 8월보다 안좋다는 얘기도 나오고 있는데.. 10년 미 국무부 채권금리, LOBOR 금리와 연방금리간 차 등이 사태가 더 악화되고 있음을 보여준다고 필자는 지적한다. 이 부분.. 세부적인 이해가 어려워 아래 위키피디아에서 찾은 내용들을 나열해놨는데.. 사실 아직 이해부족 ^^;
어찌 되었든 이 사태가 금융기관으로 번지고, 헤지펀드로 번지고, 다시 경제 전체로 번질 것이라는 것이 serial credit crunch의 실체인데..
특히, 고위험, 고수익의 특성을 갖고 있는 파생상품에 집중투자하는 헤지펀드나, 레버리지에 기반한 M&A 딜을 진행하는 PE들은 직격탄을 맞을 소지가 크다고.. 마침.. 잭 웰치와 그의 와이프.. ^^; 는 PE들이 M&A 딜이 무산.. 내지 리스크를 안게되는 모습을 http://sunday.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=4747&cat_code=0506&start_year=2007&start_month=09&end_year=2007&end_month=12&press_no=&page=1 이 컬럼에서 설명하고 잇다..
당연히 낙관 비관론이 엇갈리고 있다. 그리고, 이 낙관비관론의 바탕에는 미국 실물경제.. 미국 기업들의 이익감소 여부가 관련이 있고.. 지난 주 일요일 다룬 식량가격 인상도 큰 요소가 될 듯.
아… 토론 끝 무렵에 창 밖에 눈이 내리기 시작해서 적당한 마무리를 짓지 못한듯도 한데.. 계속 follow-up해서 지켜봐야 할 이슈!
1) Global credit crunch and its impact on Coporate America
2) Is a soft landing likely or are we in for the worst debacle in history?
http://www.economist.com/research/articlesbysubject/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_id=10191738
http://www.economist.com/finance/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_id=10255155
원본 위치 <http://cafe.naver.com/ArticleRead.nhn?clubid=14725877&articleid=187>
Blip :
1 레이더 스크린상의 영상.
2 美俗 5센트 백동전(nickel).
3 기록, 메모.
4 삑하는 소리 (bleep).
v. (blipped, ∼·ping) v.i. 삑하는 소리를 내다.
v.t. 남을 때리다, 치다(strike, slap); 【TV】 부적당한 부분을 (비디오 테이프에서) 지우다from ‥. cf. BLEEP
Wobble : 흔들림
do[turn] the trick 口 목적을 달성하다, 도움이 되다, 잘되다.
Yield : 이자
[edit] Treasury bond
Treasury bonds (T-Bonds, or the long bond) have the longest maturity, from ten years to thirty years. They have coupon payment every six months like T-Notes, and are commonly issued with maturity of thirty years. The secondary market is highly liquid, so the yield on the most recent T-Bond offering was commonly used as a proxy for long-term interest rates in general. This role has largely been taken over by the 10-year note, as the size and frequency of long-term bond issues declined significantly in the 1990s and early 2000s.
The U.S. Federal government stopped issuing the well-known 30-year Treasury bonds (often called long-bonds) on October 31, 2001. As the U.S. government used its budget surpluses to pay down the Federal debt in the late 1990s, the 10-year Treasury note began to replace the 30-year Treasury bond as the general, most-followed metric of the U.S. bond market. However, due to demand from pension funds and large, long-term institutional investors, along with a need to diversify the Treasury's liabilities - and also because the flatter yield curve meant that the opportunity cost of selling long-dated debt had dropped - the 30-year Treasury bond was re-introduced in February 2006 and is now issued quarterly. This will bring the U.S. in line with Japan and European governments issuing longer-dated maturities amid growing global demand from pension funds. Some countries, including France and the United Kingdom, have begun offering a 50-year bond, known as a Methuselah.
원본 위치 <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treasury_bond>
The London Interbank Offered Rate (or LIBOR, pronounced /ˈlaɪbɔr/) is a daily reference rate based on the interest rates at which banks offer to lend unsecured funds to other banks in the London wholesale money market (or interbank market). LIBOR will be slightly higher than the London Interbank Bid Rate (LIBID), the rate at which banks are prepared to accept deposits
원본 위치 <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Interbank_Offered_Rate>
In the United States the federal funds rate is the interest rate at which private depository institutions lend balances (federal funds) at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions, usually overnight.[1]
원본 위치 <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate>
An interest rate swap is a derivative in which one party exchanges a stream of interest payments for another party's stream of cash flows. Interest rate swaps can be used by hedgers to manage their fixed or floating assets and liabilities. They can also be used by speculators to replicate unfunded bond exposures to profit from changes in interest rates. As such, interest rate swaps are very popular and highly liquid instruments.
원본 위치 <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interest_rate_swap>
Spreads : 【금융】 원가와 판매가의 차이, 마진; 시세폭.
Write-down :
Depreciation is a term used in accounting, economics and finance with reference to the fact that assets with finite lives lose value over time. (There is also a separate use in international finance to refer to a reduction in the exchange rate of a currency - see Depreciation (currency)).
In accounting, depreciation is a term used to describe any method of attributing the historical or purchase cost of an asset, across its useful life, roughly corresponding to normal wear and tear.[1] It is of most use when dealing with assets of a short, fixed service life, and which is an example of applying the matching principle as per generally accepted accounting principles. Depreciation in accounting is often mistakenly seen as a basis for recognizing impairment of an asset, but unexpected changes in value, where seen as significant enough to account for, are handled through write-downs or similar techniques which adjust the book value of the asset to reflect its current value. Therefore, it is important to recognize that depreciation, when used as a technical accounting term, is the allocation of the historical cost of an asset across time periods when the asset is employed to generate revenues. This process of cost allocation has little or no direct relationship to the market value or current selling price of the asset, it is simply the recognition that a portion of the asset's cost--the portion that will never be recuperated through re-sale or disposal of the asset--was "used up" in the generation of revenues for that time period.
원본 위치 <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Write-down>
